Closing line value (CLV)
Comparing the price you got with the final price before puck drop; beating it regularly is the best sign you bet smart.
Closing line value (valeur de la cote de clôture), or CLV, asks one question: did you get a better price than the market's final number before puck drop? By game time, the line has soaked up goalie news, injuries and sharp money. So if you keep beating it, you're probably onto something, even when a few bets lose.
Example: under before the goalie news
You took under 6.5 in a Habs game at -105 (about 1.952) in the morning. At puck drop it closed at -125 (1.80).
- CLV: 1.952 ÷ 1.80 minus 1 = about 8.5%.
- In implied probability: you paid for a 51.2% chance; the market closed at 55.6%.
The game ends 4-3, so the under loses. Annoying, but you still got a good price. Do that over hundreds of bets and the results tend to follow.
How to track it
- Write down your price and the closing price for every bet. A spreadsheet works.
- Compare at the same book, or against a sharp market if you can.
- For a cleaner number, strip the vig out of the closing line first.
Heads up
Books notice CLV too. If you beat the close all the time, don't be shocked if your max bet shrinks.